Charts to Watch 7/26-7/30
We ended last week’s post with bitcoin and Ethereum and both respected the pivots beautifully, going on to make strong moves off of venom lines and the bottom of value so it only makes sense that we take a look at those two charts here now and see what the tea leaves are showing us.
Bitcoin and Ethereum
This week will be the last week for July’s value areas and while the data for August can still be adjusted somewhat, the value areas forming are going to be what we’re working with next week and we could pay them some mind today as a way to give us a more vigilant take here. I would like to see bitcoin hold the top of value for August that’s forming which is around 34,350 and rotate toward the venom line at 37,665. What’s likely to happen is we make a move toward that venom line, then back off and retest the top of value for August. I can see something similar happening for Ethereum as long as ETH can hold that 2200 level and rotate toward the VPOCs at 2563 and 2876. If I had to guess, we ramp to 2876 into EIP-1559 and then fade back to 2200 after the event in a typical sell the news fashion.
TTD
This was a killer on Friday along with all of the digital advertising stocks not named MGNI. Moving forward, I think we see this eventually rotate to the VPOC at 85.62 and the venom line at 93. In order for this sequence to be in play, I would like to see this hold the 80 level on any dips or weak opens. If I was a trader, my plan would be to watch any cucking action below the 80 mark and be a buyer on the reclaim and close above. Beneath 80 and technically we could see some back and fill so I would be a little careful if trading. This is an investment for me, currently a 3.2% position and man, I wish it was bigger. Earnings will be tough as expectations are high and valuation is a bit rich, but if the social media numbers are any indication of what’s happening the world of advertising, this should be a major winner in theory. Let’s hope CTV slaughterer’s those tough covid comps.
PINS
Digital advertising is proving to be the hottest thematic of this decade so far and Pinterest could be in line for a major opportunity here. Users love their experience and as long as we don’t have another MAU miss, we should see PINS make new highs on strong earnings. Comps will be tough so there’s always that to be considered, but overall, this just looks like a great company at an amazing inflection point that is still incredibly under appreciated and undervalued. If we can hold the 76 level on weak opens and dips, I think we see this one rotate toward that venom line at 87.48 and eventually make new highs. Earnings could be a catalyst that rockets this or destroys it so be aware of the risks that come with a binary event, but I love this company long term and have been holding a core position since January of 2020.
PDD
Everyone hates China stocks and rightfully so, their government is going all in on making it miserable for shareholders in America. Having said that, when everyone hates an asset in unison, the lone bull holds tremendous opportunity and phenomenal alpha. So I’m watching this one, but watching it with a purpose. I have zero desire being long here unless we break back over 107.54 which is the top of value for the year and start trending again, or we wash out completely to that VPOC at 81.40 or the POC for the year at 68.85. If we can come down to those levels, I think we have a great opportunity that outweighs the risks of a government acting ridiculously. This is NOT a trade that should be taken lightly or with any size, but it’s an idea that could pay out nicely in a few years. I will be watching it and would love to see the POC or even bottom of value at 33.53 if things got REALLY ugly for China stocks.
CRWD
Monster winner that keeps on winning. I made a mistake selling my position when I did but what can you do. I would watch that 268 level and if it finds itself failing at there consider setting a bid in the 252 region for a retrace to the bottom of value which could be an attractive opportunity if earnings aren’t subpar.
RBLX
This one has some good tailwinds behind it thematically, but it also does carry some China risk thanks to their partnership with Tencent so keep that in mind. Dips against 80 could work for an eventual rotation back to 88+. I would be cautious honestly, but this is a good company and any weakness due to China could be a good long term opportunity.
DASH
This is one I’ve ignored since it’s IPO but I noticed it on my IPO growth screener and the chart looks really good here. I would like to see this hold 183 on any dips for an eventual rotation back to that venom line at 200. Volume looks good here so any good news on earnings can probably send this to those venom lines at 234 and 247.
ABNB
This one has been anemic lately so I would watch that 140.88 level as potential resistance. If it fails there, a retrace to the 133 level could be in the cards. If we can clear 140.88 that would be a bullish reclaim and this could potentially trend back to the top of value for the year at 168. Not an easy trade on the long side by any means, but a great company worth looking at if it can make a bullish reclaim. Otherwise, some puts and a day trade could work out nicely.
DDOG
No one talks about this stock anymore after being a favorite in 2020. I really like the chart here and think we can see a move to 120+ if we can clear 112.85. Volume pattern is solid, chart looks good, definitely one I plan on setting an alert on and possibly considering here for a swing into earnings.
U
This is one of my favorite stocks in my favorite thematic for the decade. If we can clear 108.24 this might finally break out and trend toward the VPOC at 128.45 and the top of value for the year at 138.55. Good earnings might be needed to facilitate this process and eventual reversal, but so far everything looks good and I think we have some good action and lots of runway here if we can clear this upcoming pivot. This is currently a 7% position for me and I plan on staying long for the next few years regardless of what happens in the near term.
COIN
I feel like I talk about Coinbase a lot on here, but this is a solid company that has some tough headwinds because of the way it trades in line with crypto. If we can get back over 229 and crypto can start a reversal in its own right, we might see a powerful move here toward the top of value at 253, the venom line at 263.45, and the VPOC at 310.86. I would be very cautious, however, under 229 and really see no point in being here under that level unless you’re zooming out and focusing on this as an investment for the next few years.
PATH
Cathy loves this one and has been buying regardless of price. If it can hold 61.88 we may see a reversal and rotation back to 67.51. This is one worth watching here with decent r/r against the lows that could be an ok swing. I would only be long above that pivot seeing as we are in a downtrend technically and below that pivot the bottom is potentially endless.
CFLT
This is a company that I’m very intrigued by but need to see more from them fundamentally. The growth rate is solid and the product seems sticky and important, I’m just not crazy about the DBNER that’s been decreasing the past few quarters. Regardless, we might be at an inflection point here technically that can make this a decent trade. I think we might be bottoming and could be due for a bit of a reversal. I would like to see it hold 40.40 for an eventual rotation back toward 46+. I’m going to be watching earnings carefully and could jump into it at some point, especially if we see DBNER acceleration.
PCOR
This is a really cool company bringing SaaS to the construction industry. I have no plans to own this one at all since the spreads are really wide and I’d like to see it have an earnings report or two before creating an opinion, but the chart looks good and we might see a move here through 100. Potential Livermore rule could be in effect so don’t be surprised if this ramps up to 120-130 in gasp if it can clear 100.
ESTC
This one never broke down or pulled back like I hoped for but it’s a solid company. If this can push through 151 and confirm I think we can see a rotation toward that VPOC at 164. Worth eying as we head into earnings.